The Statistics on Group 1 qualification

By Stewart Morrison
Last updated : 27 November 2004
Currently:
Schalke - 7 points
Feyenoord - 4 points
HEARTS - 3 points
Basel - 1 point
Ferenc. - 1 point


To play:
Ferencvaros - Basel
Feyenoord v Schalke
Basel v Feyenoord
HEARTS v Ferencvaros


Schalke have qualified.


If Feyenoord do not take at least 1 point from their last 2 games, they may not qualify. If Schalke beat Feyenoord, then Feyenoord MUST take a point off Basel in the last game. That would leave Feyenoord with 5 points. If Schalke beat Feyenoord, it may well give Feyenoord some "hunger" to go out an beat Basel in the last game rather than just playing for the draw.


If Basel beat Ferencvaros then they will be on 4 points, with a better goal difference, so we will HAVE to beat Ferencvaros ourselves, or hope that Basel get a serious humping from Feyenoord and we get a draw. If Basel draw with or get beaten by Ferencvaros, then Basel HAVE to beat Feyenoord and hope we draw with Ferencvaros (whoever wins of that one would go through), but goal difference might mean Basel were already out by then.


If Ferencvaros beat Basel, then theywill be on 4 points, and we will HAVE to beat Ferencvaros to go through, hoping that Basel do not beat Feyenoord and take a barrow load of goals off them.


So, ideally:
Feyenoord lose to Schalke (which makes Feyenoord HAVE to go for a win at Basel)
Ferencvaros draw with Basel (so if Basel beat Feyenoord, the winning team qualifies but the losing team finishes below us - if we beat Ferencvaros)
Feyenoord beat Basel (and qualify)
HEARTS beat Ferencvaros and qualify (and even a draw would do):


Schalke - 10 points
Feyenoord - 7 points
HEARTS - 6 points (or 4 points)
Basel - 2 points
Ferencvaros - 2 points (or 3 points)

Thanks to Gilamas for help with the stats.

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